Statements by former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding possible territorial arrangements in the Ukraine war remain vague and difficult to interpret. One conceivable scenario involves a form of exchange in which Russia gains full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, while relinquishing claims to parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson that it does not fully control. At the same time, the military situation is described as fluid, with ongoing fighting and speculation about new offensives. Observations suggest that Russia holds strategic advantages in this war of attrition, while Ukraine lacks the personnel and resources to sustain the conflict in the long term. According to surveys, support for negotiations is growing among the Ukrainian population, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to pursue a hardline stance.
A diplomatic solution modeled on historical precedent is presented as a possible way out, drawing on the détente approach during the Cuban Missile Crisis. At that time, John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev managed to prevent escalation and reach arms control agreements through mutual concessions. A comparable approach today would involve recognizing the security interests of both sides, making compromises, and transparently informing the public about the necessity of a peace agreement. Critics note that political leadership in the United States often operates under domestic pressure and the influence of security structures, which complicates peace initiatives.
The conflict is also placed within a broader geopolitical shift: the centuries-long dominance of the West is seen as having ended, with a multipolar world order emerging. Countries such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil are gaining influence and increasingly resisting U.S. leadership. Against this backdrop, attempts by Washington to impose its interests unilaterally appear less effective. Trade disputes and geopolitical tensions reinforce this trend. A lasting resolution to the war in Ukraine is therefore primarily seen in negotiations among major powers, extending beyond the immediate conflict to include issues such as arms control and economic cooperation.