Ukrainian armed forces attacked two vessels from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” which plays a key role in circumventing sanctions and financing Russia’s war economy. Russia responded by threatening to cut Ukraine off from access to the Black Sea. The economic damage to Russia from such strikes is considered limited, while at the same time there are significant risks of escalation. In particular, Moscow could use this as a pretext to advance militarily, for example toward Odesa. In recent days, intensified Russian strikes have already been reported there, including on military infrastructure, pilot accommodations, and the airport. A possible fall of the port city would cut Ukraine off from the sea and significantly worsen its economic and strategic position.
Diplomatic initiatives to end the war are seen as stalled. Proposals to freeze the front lines are rejected by Russia, which instead sets far-reaching conditions for negotiations. At the same time, Western mediation efforts are criticized as being largely symbolic. Further escalation could also result from a changing role of NATO after discussions within the alliance about the possibility of preemptive actions. Reports of alleged Russian “hybrid warfare” in Europe, such as acts of sabotage, are assessed differently. Critics view them more as political narratives aimed at mobilizing European public opinion than as a concrete threat.
Europe’s military capabilities are considered limited despite increased defense spending. There is a lack of sufficiently ready troops, reserves, and long-term structural capacity to withstand a large-scale conflict with Russia. At the same time, Ukraine’s combat strength is described as high and its defensive performance as notable, but ultimately insufficient in the long term due to structural disadvantages and limited resources. One possible path to ending the war mentioned is a withdrawal of direct U.S. support, followed by negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and European states on a new territorial order. Without such a political shift, a sustainable resolution to the conflict appears unlikely.