Iran has, according to reports from the past six to twelve hours, heavily targeted Tel Aviv in multiple waves of attacks; three buildings are said to have been destroyed. Tehran also announced that, in the event of US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s power grid, it would also take regional water desalination plants into its sights. In connection with a five-day deadline set by Donald Trump, the situation is described as continuing to escalate, while at the same time giving the impression of a coordinated “good cop/bad cop” role between Washington and Israel, in which public US signals about negotiations would be flanked by Israeli attacks.
In this context, criticism is directed at the US president’s communication via Truth Social instead of through official government channels. In the run-up to such an announcement, large positions were reportedly taken on oil and market movements; mentioned are oil bets totaling 580 million US dollars, followed by falling oil prices and an increase in S&P 500 market capitalization of around two trillion US dollars. After an Iranian denial two hours later, the price movements reportedly reversed; the stock market temporarily lost about one trillion US dollars in market capitalization and then rose again. Reference is also made to political betting platforms such as Polymarket as a possible venue for insider trading and to family ties, namely that Donald Trump Jr. sits on Polymarket’s advisory board.
As part of the most recent escalation dynamics, attacks on Iranian gas and energy facilities are mentioned that are linked to power and water supplies; Iran reportedly reported only minimal damage and limited, temporary blackouts and then responded with a comparable level of impact. At the same time, reference is made to the arrival of several US Marine units (MEUs) within the stated time frame and to the fact that the deadline coincides with the end of the financial quarter in the markets. Iran warned against attacks on energy infrastructure and, in return, announced retaliation against Israel and Gulf states if such strikes occurred, and most recently “partial power outages” in Iran were described for a limited period of time.