Military attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran are intensifying geopolitical tensions and causing significant disruptions in energy markets. The actions are classified as violations of international law and are seen as triggers for growing economic risks. At the same time, experts warn of a potential escalation with far-reaching consequences for global energy supply. Particular attention is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a key transport route for oil and gas, whose blockage could severely disrupt international trade.
The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, considers the world to be facing the greatest threat to energy security in history and criticizes political decision-makers for underestimating the severity of the situation. Rising energy prices are seen as a central risk: historical data show that sharp increases in oil prices are often followed by inflation, rising unemployment, and subsequent recessions. Current market movements already point in this direction, while key indicators such as inflation tend to react with a delay.
If the situation continues to escalate and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period, drastic increases in energy and fuel prices are likely. Scenarios range from significant price surges to supply shortages that could heavily impact daily life and the economy. Rapid de-escalation of the conflict is therefore considered crucial to prevent a global energy crisis and a deep economic recession.