At the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term in office, there was widespread expectation among observers that he would strategically realign U.S. foreign policy, reduce military engagements, and in particular refrain from starting new wars. This assessment was also based on his first term, during which he did not initiate new conflicts and signaled a withdrawal from prolonged wars. Instead, the opposite dynamic quickly emerged: about 13 months after taking office, a war against Iran began on February 28, 2026, which is viewed as a serious strategic mistake. The conflict is considered unwinnable and carries significant risks for the global economy, particularly due to potential disruptions to energy supplies.
The military strategy initially aimed at a rapid victory through “shock and awe” tactics and regime change, but failed early and led to a prolonged war of attrition. Iran possesses substantial escalation capabilities, including attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, blockades of key maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, and potential cooperation with regional actors such as the Houthis in the Red Sea. At the same time, the United States is compelled to maintain Iranian and Russian oil exports to avoid a global economic crisis, which further weakens its own strategic position. Negotiations are considered unlikely, as the demands of both sides are far apart and Iran, due to its growing leverage, shows no interest in a quick settlement.
The situation is further exacerbated by domestic political pressure in the United States, contradictory signals from Washington, and the lack of viable military options, particularly on the ground, where deployed troops are regarded as insufficient compared to previous wars. European states show restraint and largely refuse participation, while tensions within NATO are increasing at the same time. The only apparent way out is seen in making far-reaching concessions to Iranian demands, which is politically difficult to implement. The flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen from around 20 percent of global supply to about 5 percent of its pre-war level