The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is having far-reaching consequences for global energy supply. Around 20 percent of the world’s oil transport is affected, with Asian countries in particular facing acute shortages. At the same time, numerous energy facilities in the Middle East have been severely damaged since the start of the war against Iran. The International Energy Agency considers the situation comparable to previous major energy crises. Despite large-scale releases from strategic oil reserves, the situation remains tense, as long-term damage persists even if the strait reopens in the short term. This uncertainty is reflected in extreme price fluctuations on the markets, driven in part by conflicting political signals from the United States and Iran.
In addition to oil, the supply of key resources such as helium has also been disrupted, putting semiconductor production at risk. Countries like South Korea and Taiwan are heavily dependent on supplies from the Gulf region. At the same time, rising diesel prices are exacerbating the situation and are seen as a precursor to higher inflation. The economic impact ranges from energy price shocks to potential disruptions in global supply chains. New geopolitical risks are also emerging, including possible tensions involving the United States, China, and Russia, which could seek to exploit the situation strategically.
From a military perspective, a lasting reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is considered extremely difficult, as even minor threats are sufficient to halt shipping. Negotiations so far appear to have little chance of success, as Iran’s demands are unacceptable to the opposing side. At the same time, it remains unclear how long the conflict will last and whether further escalation is imminent. Experts assume that even if the war ends soon, it could take months or years to restore damaged infrastructure, while global energy markets may undergo structural changes.