The Iranian leadership announces that, in the event of attacks on its energy infrastructure by the United States or Israel, it would not only target facilities in the Gulf states but also destroy desalination plants. This would massively destabilize the affected societies and have severe consequences for the global economy. Against this backdrop, an attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure appears highly risky, with potentially catastrophic consequences. At the same time, concerns are growing that political leaders, when under pressure or facing a desperate situation, may resort to risky and unlikely-to-succeed measures. Historical examples show that states in such moments tend to make escalatory decisions despite low chances of success.
From a military perspective, possible options are considered hardly feasible. An invasion of individual strategic locations or even the entire country appears unrealistic given Iran’s size and population of around 93 million people, and would likely involve heavy casualties. Special operations, such as securing nuclear material, are also seen as practically unworkable. Internationally, the conflict is widely regarded as a serious mistake, with economic consequences expected to be felt worldwide, particularly through rising energy and food prices. Many countries anticipate a prolonged escalation without a quick resolution.
Strategically, Iran has an interest in prolonging the conflict, as rising costs and increasing pressure on Western states strengthen its negotiating position. A settlement currently appears unlikely, as the demands of both sides diverge significantly: while Iran calls, among other things, for the withdrawal of Western troops, reparations, and an end to sanctions, the United States and its allies demand far-reaching concessions regarding missile programs, nuclear activities, and regional influence. Earlier assumptions of a rapid regime change in Iran have proven unrealistic. Instead, the situation points toward a prolonged war of attrition, likely to produce increasingly severe economic and political consequences over time.