Former military advisor Douglas Macgregor describes the U.S. war against Iran as a failed attempt to achieve a swift military decision. The original strategy had aimed to quickly eliminate the Iranian leadership and destabilize the system, but instead it has turned into a prolonged air campaign. President Donald Trump is under both domestic and international pressure and, after a short pause, is preparing an intensive air offensive using modern precision weapons intended to achieve maximum impact within a few days. A large-scale ground operation was never part of the plan, as an attack on a country the size of Western Europe with around 93 million inhabitants would require millions of troops and months of preparation; instead, any ground operations would be limited to the seizure of individual islands in the Persian Gulf.
At the same time, the nature of warfare has shifted: while the United States continues to rely on traditional military superiority with aircraft carriers and airstrikes, Iran is deploying large quantities of precision-guided missiles and drones launched from protected facilities, capable of striking targets over long distances. This approach has forced the U.S. fleet to operate farther offshore and has significantly complicated military operations. The conflict has also triggered severe economic consequences, particularly through disruptions to oil and gas transport via the Strait of Hormuz, leading to global shortages of energy, food, and fertilizers. Countries such as the United Kingdom, India, and Japan are already under significant strain, while China possesses larger strategic reserves.
Macgregor questions official U.S. government claims of success, calling them misleading, as damage assessments are often inaccurate and Iran lacks both a significant air force and a conventional navy. He also warns of major risks in further escalation, noting that U.S. troops would be highly vulnerable to Iranian missiles and drones during any operations, and that defense systems are less effective than reported. In addition, ammunition supplies are limited: advanced missile defense systems such as THAAD and Patriot PAC-3 are running low, while offensive precision weapons are expected to last only a few more weeks, and Israel in some cases has supplies for only a similar short period.