A social media post by former U.S. President Donald Trump recently triggered strong reactions in financial markets and fueled speculation about a possible end to the Iran conflict. The timing of the post, at 11:05 a.m. UK time, was particularly notable. Immediately afterward, the price of U.S. benchmark crude oil (WTI) fell sharply, as many traders anticipated an easing of tensions and began selling their positions. At the same time, trading volumes surged, indicating a highly reactive market environment.
A closer look at the trading data, however, reveals an unusual pattern: roughly 15 minutes before the post was published, there was an exceptionally high level of trading activity. This spike represented the largest volume of the day and occurred after a previously quiet market phase. The phenomenon was not limited to the U.S. oil market but was also observed in a similar form in Brent crude, the European benchmark. The scale of the trades suggests that hundreds of millions of dollars were moved.
A comparable pattern was also observed in equity markets, particularly in S&P 500 futures. Here, too, prices and trading volumes rose significantly after the post, while an unusually large trade had already taken place shortly beforehand. The potential profits from these early transactions are estimated to amount to several hundred million dollars. This sequence of events raises questions about whether it was merely coincidence or whether some market participants had prior knowledge of the announcement.