The deployment of modern combat aircraft over hostile territory remains highly risky even with technological superiority, as ground-based air defenses can never be completely eliminated. Aircraft losses are therefore to be expected and help explain why countries such as the United States and Israel, despite their military strength, are reluctant to operate directly over Iranian territory. The conflict is causing numerous civilian casualties and raises the question of geopolitical winners. Russia and China are seen as the primary beneficiaries: Russia gains economically from eased energy sanctions and strategically from tying down Western resources, while China can expand its influence in the Middle East and globally as the United States is increasingly perceived as an unreliable partner.
Other countries, by contrast, are coming under pressure. India, for example, faces rising energy and production costs as well as increasing inflation, threatening its economic stability. Contrary to initial expectations of a swift victory, the war has developed into a war of attrition in which Iran exerts significant influence due to its strategic position, particularly in the energy sector. The risk of escalation remains high, especially through potential attacks on oil and gas facilities, which could have severe consequences for the global economy. At the same time, international criticism of U.S. policy and its influence structures is growing, further weakening its foreign policy credibility.
For many countries, this creates a need to reassess their relationships. Close alignment with the United States carries risks, prompting countries in the Global South in particular to pursue greater strategic distance or alternative partnerships. Europe is also under increasing strain: in addition to economic pressures from rising prices, the conflict in the Middle East is exacerbating the effects of the war in Ukraine. A potential Ukrainian defeat by Russia would significantly weaken Europe’s political and military standing, as well as that of NATO, and deepen the crisis facing European leadership.