Former Chief of Staff at the US Department of State, Lawrence Wilkerson, describes current US policy in the conflict with Iran as directionless and driven by short-term attempts to buy time. The repeatedly extended ultimatums issued by Donald Trump suggest that the administration lacks a clear strategy and is trying to artificially prolong its room for maneuver. At the same time, special forces are being assembled worldwide without any identifiable realistic military objective. A large-scale invasion of Iran is considered unlikely; instead, limited and difficult-to-execute operations are being pursued. According to this assessment, diplomatic contacts with Iranian representatives have not taken place, while Iranian officials at the United Nations have raised serious accusations regarding attacks on civilian infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, and supply facilities.
At the same time, the conflict is significantly worsening the global economic situation. The disruption of key trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz is affecting supply chains for critical goods, including helium used in semiconductor production. By standard definitions, the global economy is already in a recession, with a growing risk of a global depression. Thousands of ships are backed up near the strait, while energy prices and transportation costs are rising sharply. The increasing instability is affecting multiple regions simultaneously and could further intensify existing conflicts, pointing toward scenarios of a broader global war.
Militarily, the situation in Israel is described as increasingly critical. Benjamin Netanyahu has announced a large-scale mobilization of additional reservists, even though a significant portion of those previously called up failed to report for duty. Fighting with Hezbollah in Lebanon has resulted in notable losses, while conflict in Gaza continues. According to assessments, Iran may already possess the technical capability to build nuclear weapons and could, in the event of escalation, carry out extensive attacks on regional targets, including energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. The potential use of nuclear weapons by the United States or Israel would significantly increase the risk of direct confrontation with other nuclear powers such as Russia and China. Iran has compiled a detailed target list of militarily and economically critical facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain.