The military escalation by the United States in the conflict with Iran is seen as a risky and far-reaching decision that is already having noticeable effects on global financial markets. Commodity prices are rising sharply, particularly oil, which has increased by around 20 percent within a few weeks, while stock markets continue to come under pressure. Historical comparisons point to the 1973 oil crisis, when stock values collapsed and gold prices surged dramatically. Currently, investors are once again turning to gold as confidence in the financial system declines and the need for hedging strategies grows.
The political strategy of forcing rapid regime change through targeted attacks on Iran’s leadership is proving to be a miscalculation. Iran has established succession structures that allow the continuity of governance. Instead of regime change in Iran, increasing political instability is emerging within the United States itself. Parts of the former support base are turning away and voicing open criticism. Within these groups, calls for political change are growing, further intensifying domestic tensions.
The economic consequences are expected to be far-reaching. In addition to rising commodity prices, a combination of supply chain disruptions and increasing public debt is anticipated, as the United States must expand its military production. While this could provide short-term economic stimulus, it is also likely to create significant distortions. Overall, a global economic downturn is considered likely. While stock markets are expected to suffer from declining profitability, safe-haven assets such as gold are likely to benefit.
At the same time, rising inflation is worsening the social situation, particularly for low- and middle-income households. Existing inequalities are being reinforced, as wages have not kept pace with productivity growth for decades. These economic pressures could drive political shifts, especially in upcoming elections where losses for the ruling party are expected. Concerns are also growing about political instability and potential legal consequences for leading figures.
There is also criticism within economics of established models that have long neglected key factors such as private debt. Earlier warnings ahead of the 2008 financial crisis were based on rising debt levels that proved unsustainable and ultimately led to a collapse in demand. Nevertheless, many economists are seen as having ignored these dynamics once again, despite similar risks persisting.
The conflict also carries significant geopolitical risks. Within a matter of weeks, it may become clear whether the situation remains limited to economic disruption or escalates further. In the worst-case scenario, the use of nuclear weapons is considered possible if the military situation deteriorates sharply. Overall, the outlook is characterized by growing uncertainty, economic strain, and political instability.