The military capability and credibility of NATO are portrayed as significantly weakened. Modern weapons systems and equipment are described as having proven less effective than expected, while the operational readiness of European armed forces in particular is being called into question. Using Germany as an example, reference is made to insufficient equipment, limited industrial capacity, and structural problems that hinder the formation of effective military units. At the same time, Russia is said to have adapted both militarily and technologically, particularly through rapid innovation cycles in the defense sector and the increased use of new warfare technologies such as drones.
At the same time, a fundamental transformation of Russia is described. The country is said to have detached itself economically and politically from the West and to be placing greater emphasis on sovereignty and economic self-reliance. This realignment is accompanied by a strengthened self-image as an independent major power and culture. Despite earlier economic weaknesses, Russia is portrayed as having stabilized and expanded its economy. According to this account, sanctions have not achieved their intended effect but have instead contributed to stronger domestic development and accelerated alternative international cooperation, for example within new economic alliances.
Furthermore, far-reaching changes in the global order are outlined. The dominance of Western institutions and the US dollar is increasingly being questioned, while new alliances and payment systems are gaining importance. Economic sanctions and financial policy measures are said to have undermined the trust of many states in existing structures and contributed to a shift away from the Western-led system. In this context, Ukraine’s prospects are also assessed critically, both in terms of integration into Western alliances and its economic situation. Overall, the picture that emerges is one of a shifting geopolitical balance with the growing importance of alternative centers of power.