In Washington there is said to be confusion about the United States’ intentions toward Iran: although military assets were initially moved into the region, an attack then did not take place, accompanied by contradictory explanations from circles around Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. The cause is portrayed as a lack of strategic planning and highly impulse-driven decision-making. In this account, economically motivated protests in Iran—triggered by the poor situation and the dramatic loss of value of Iran’s currency—developed into a political power struggle between reformers and conservatives, which was then expanded into a covert operation by Western and Israeli intelligence services. Among other things, thousands of “Starlight” terminals and large sums of money were allegedly used; there are also indications of instructions given to people in crowds to shoot at police in order to provoke return fire and fatalities, which was intended to escalate the situation.
This operation is said to have failed, among other reasons because Iran and Turkey cooperated and destroyed around 400 Kurdish fighters who were trying to move from Syria into Iran. In addition, many of the terminals were confiscated; China is said to have provided technical help in suppressing and jamming the connections, and Russia is also said to have offered support. Trump was reportedly presented with a “golden moment” to topple the Iranian government with little effort; but when Iran did not “implode,” its armed forces and integrated air and missile defenses remained intact, and greater firepower would have been required, explanations for calling off an attack were allegedly spread after the fact. At the same time, reference is made to the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the region and the possibility of a second carrier group, while Netanyahu is said to continue pushing for confrontation and a war is expected within seven to ten days after demands were conveyed that Iran should stop enriching uranium, reduce missile stockpiles, and end support for regional allies, in exchange for lifting sanctions.
There are also reports of a brief, unusual earthquake in Israel, located near Dimona and linked to speculation about a possible underground nuclear test and a drill announced at the same time. In this context, Israel’s nuclear capabilities are described, including an estimated 250 to 300 warheads, basing options on Dolphin-class submarines, ground-based systems, and delivery aircraft ranging from F-15s to F-35s, while warnings are raised about a chain reaction of regional nuclear armament and Iranian hypersonic missiles are cited as a threat. China is said to obtain roughly 30% of its oil from Iran, Russia is said to view Iran as a stable partner for its southern flank and for projects such as BRICS and the “One Belt One Road” initiative, and freight trains from China to Iran are already mentioned. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is said to still be on its way to the region.