The escalation in the Middle East, and in particular a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is considered a significant risk to the global economy. A disruption of key oil transport routes lasting several months could lead to a collapse of global markets and a prolonged period of economic weakness, comparable to the effects of the 1973 oil embargo, which resulted in a decade of inflation and low growth. While some countries are already experiencing rising energy prices and supply shortages, China appears more resilient in the short term due to its increased reliance on renewable energy and its own oil reserves. However, risks remain there as well, as many industries depend on petroleum products and initial companies are already warning of production stoppages due to limited stockpiles.
China is pursuing a strategically cautious approach in the conflict and is avoiding military support for Iran despite close economic ties. At the same time, the country is deeply engaged with other states in the region and primarily follows economic interests alongside a policy of non-intervention. Geopolitically, the situation is ambivalent: on the one hand, a prolonged conflict could tie down the United States and indirectly strengthen China; on the other hand, the uncertainty is weighing on the Chinese economy, which is already facing structural issues such as high youth unemployment and a weak real estate market. At the same time, Western countries are intensifying their economic relations with China, while trust in the United States as a reliable partner is declining and capital flows are partially shifting.
A military intervention by China in Taiwan is considered unlikely under current circumstances. Internal problems within the military leadership and a long-term strategy focused on economic influence argue against a short-term escalation. Instead, China is relying on economic incentives and political engagement, particularly through contacts with the opposition party in Taiwan. At the same time, an increasingly multipolar world order is emerging, in which multiple centers of power such as China, the United States, Europe, and other regions are gaining influence in parallel, while international investors are increasingly withdrawing capital from the United States and expanding trade relations with China, including multi-billion-dollar deals in agricultural products and energy imports.