Global sympathy for Iran is increasing following two surprise attacks and widespread destruction, while misjudgments about the country’s political continuity are becoming apparent. The expectation that the death of individual leaders could immediately lead to political change or even peace is proving unrealistic. The conflict is evolving into a war of attrition with strategic significance beyond the region: the fall of the Iranian government would, according to observers, also weaken Russia and China, while a failure by the United States could bind Iran more closely to both powers and strengthen Eurasian cooperation.
International alliances such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization appear ineffective in the crisis and marked by internal tensions. Differences among member states, particularly the behavior of India and the United Arab Emirates, are significantly straining cooperation. Russia and China, by contrast, are taking a more active role, supporting Iran diplomatically, for example in the UN Security Council, and reportedly providing intelligence as well as military-technical assistance. Both countries are pursuing the long-term goal of stronger Eurasian integration, in which Iran is seen as a central actor alongside Russia and China, and a collapse of the country is to be strategically prevented.
At the same time, regional dynamics are intensifying the situation, especially with regard to Azerbaijan, which plays a key role due to its geographic position and energy infrastructure. A possible involvement of the country could have far-reaching consequences for Europe’s energy supply and regional stability. Iran is closely monitoring activities in Azerbaijan, as there are already indications of previous attacks originating from its territory. Political and military tensions are further exacerbated by conflicting interests of regional actors such as Turkey, while Iran’s leadership is putting forward clear demands, including a complete end to sanctions, reparations, and the withdrawal of US military bases from West Asia, and is currently rejecting mediation.