U.S. President Donald Trump initially threatened to strike Iranian energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully reopened within 48 hours. Shortly afterward, however, he stated that potential attacks had been postponed due to what he described as constructive talks with Iran, a claim denied by Iranian officials. Observers interpret this more as a tactical signal aimed at influencing energy markets rather than evidence of real negotiations. At the same time, tensions remain high: Iran announced severe retaliatory measures, particularly against Persian Gulf states that host U.S. military bases or support attacks. Earlier, strikes on Iran’s gas industry had already been followed by counterattacks against targets in the region. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is restricted as insurance risks and military uncertainty increase.
While the United States and Israel speak of a weakening of Iran, ongoing Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. and Israeli targets indicate, according to assessments, that Iran retains significant military capability. Large parts of Iran’s infrastructure, including missile arsenals, drone capacities, and air defense systems, are reportedly protected in underground facilities. A possible U.S. ground invasion is considered uncertain, as Iran still maintains considerable deterrence capabilities. Meanwhile, military exchanges are intensifying, with Iran increasingly deploying more advanced weapon systems and Israeli defenses coming under pressure.
Within Iran, the humanitarian situation is worsening due to attacks on civilian targets such as residential buildings, schools, and medical facilities. Tehran accuses the United States and Israel of deliberately targeting civilians. A political resolution currently appears unlikely: Iran rejects negotiations with the U.S. and instead demands an end to attacks, compensation, and a halt to the military use of neighboring countries against it. Positions also remain hardened in the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program, with Iran insisting it is not pursuing nuclear weapons and rejecting such allegations.